Yes, No or Maybe. While we would feel confident is saying that markets are pretty much stuck in a range because of real underlying downward pressures caused by both resource-population and mathematical interest rate constraints; anything can happen to push prices upwards for an extended period of time. Markets represent an aggregate collection of socio-pathic thinking and rarely conform to what might be called rational thought phenomena.
The drivers of greed and fear are emotions that do not have carved in stone algebraic equations that determine outcomes. Still, they somehow, in strange ways, connect to "perceived rational thought" or what otherwise might be defined as powerful persuasions built on contextual logic. However, when any "perceived key assumption" behind such contextual logic changes - then all hell breaks loose.
So remember, today's markets were driven by the comforting abstracts of a liquidity that was poured into to them by 24-hour fiat-currency printing; that many, seem to assume has no limits. It does. Some event, or series, or connected events, will trigger either interest rates to rise, or profits to fall dramatically. These are likely rational reasons; the irrational reasons behind the markets emotions and related changes are much more elusive.
The point being, while for the most part we agree with Marc; US markets could still rise another 30% from here, and stay there for some time, - not likely, but it is still a possibility we must keep in mind. Markets can be cruel mistresses.
March 28, 2013
Market Alchemy:
Aggregate Emotional Algebra mixed with Collective Socio-Pathology
