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I guess you noticed the swoon last week in the NASDAQ. I’m not bright enough to figure out where it goes next in the short-term. But I do have a couple of ideas about what will happen in the longer-term. The beauty about long-term guesses is that if I’m wrong, I won’t be around to have to take the brickbats
20 years ago the global literati were all up in arms about the coming global population explosion. Now it’s starting to look a lot more like we are going to face a population implosion. Rapidly declining fertility rates, the increasing propensity for educated women to delay childbearing or not to have children at all, are all leading to populations flattening out or even declining.
Most developed countries are in this category. That includes Europe and the US. The US is only managing to increase its population through high rates of immigration. Places like Japan are actually already seeing population declines. China of course is static. India is still rising but as it enters the next phase we can be sure that its population will flatten out too. Russia is heavily declining, although there are special factors at work (vodka, resignation).
