Iran Might Still Outwit the Saudis on Oil
Iran's oil exports are growing much more quickly than analysts predicted back in January when sanctions were eased. If the recovery continues at its recent pace, it could raise an interesting dilemma at OPEC's next meeting in June.
Iran's Recovery
Oil production is closer to government plans than analysts' more pessimistic expectations
As Bloomberg reported earlier this month, Iran exported more than 2 million barrels per day of crude during the first half of April -- a figure calculated from tracking ships loading at Iranian export terminals. This compares with 1.45 million barrels a day in March. Neither figure includes the country's exports of condensate (a type of light oil recovered from gas fields)
Contenders or Pretenders
Tale of Two Charts
( First Financial Insights)
$91 Billion In Capex Cuts, A Serious Hangover For Oil
Forty-seven years (!) after Simon and Garfunkel released ‘The Boxer’, and the bulls and the bears are slogging it out again. After trading blows in recent days, the bulls appear to have the upper hand, as technicals trump immediately weak fundamentals. Nonetheless, we are seeing a pullback today. Hark, here are six things to consider in oil markets today: 1) Jumping straight into economic data, we’ve had disappointing retail sales out of the UK before the Eurozone interest rate decision (still stuck at 0.0 percent, deposit rate still negative at -0.4 percent). We’ve subsequently had comments from ECB President Draghi that stimulus is working – and that loose monetary policy will persist for as long as it takes. The euro initially rallied, before unwinding again. 2) On to the U.S., and weekly jobless claims came in at 247.000, astoundingly a 42-year low. The Philly Fed was a party pooper, […]
Oil Majors Lose Faith In The North Sea – 100 Shut Downs Looming
Oil production from the North Sea posted gains in 2015 for the second year in a row, but the recent uptick in output could be a blip in the region’s long-term decline. Oil companies added 160,000 barrels per day last year from North Sea projects in the UK and Norway, according to the IEA . However, those gains came from projects that were planned years ago when oil prices traded above $100 per barrel. With Brent crude declining by more than 60 percent from mid-2014, North Sea oil producers have slashed spending, scrapped projects and are looking to sell off assets. The IEA summed it up in its latest monthly Oil Market Report: “North Sea projects fall victim to oil price slump.” For example, Det Norske, a Norwegian oil producer, is “shopping cheap assets” and is contemplating scrapping its Vette project, which it purchased from Premier Oil just last […]
Paris climate deal falls short, U.N. expert says
A U.N. expert says commitments so far under the Paris Climate Agreement are short of what’s needed to keep climate change in check. Photo by Debbie Hill/ UPI GENEVA, Switzerland, April 21 (UPI) — While the Paris Climate Agreement is a historic step in the right direction, commitments fall short of curbing global climate change, a U.N. expert said. Parties to an agreement adopted in December are set to sign off Friday on one of the more significant pieces of climate legislation in history. The agreement called for all parties to make strides to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level necessary to curb global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Under the terms of the agreement, wealthier nations like China and the United States are expected to help finance the shift to a low-carbon economy from poor developing nations. “This target […]
Saudi Aramco IPO Could Be 5% of Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the largest energy firm in the world, is considering listing up to 5% of its value on a stock exchange in New York within the next year, a top Saudi oil official said Thursday. By listing even a tiny fraction of the company, known as Saudi Aramco, the offering would create one of the world’s most valuable energy firms. Estimates of Saudi Aramco’s value have varied, but using a conservative number of $2.5 trillion , a 5% listing would give it a potential value of $125 billion—bigger than BP BP -0.38 % PLC and French oil titan Total SA TOT -0.49 % . The Saudis are considering listing Aramco at a time when the kingdom is trying to raise cash during a period of sharply lower oil prices and transition […]
