#BIG #PLAYERS SEE #OIL AT $200 By 2022-End

 

OILPRICE.COM

Top Oil Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End-2022

By Irina Slav - Mar 24, 2022,

• A number of big oil traders now predict crude to trade at more than $200 per barrel by the end of 2022.
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• Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group even sees crude at $250 by year's end.
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• Most $200 oil predictions are factoring in a significant loss of supply from Russia.

 

Some of the world’s biggest oil traders expect oil prices to exceed $200 per barrel by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing opinions shared at its Commodity Global Summit this week.

“Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” said Pierre Andurand, who has been super bullish on oil for a while. “I think we’re losing the Russian supply on the European side forever.”

The hedge fund manager first made his $200-per-barrel forecast earlier this month, saying that producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch will struggle to replace the Russian crude going off the market.

Yet Andurand is neither the only superbull nor the biggest one. Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group, told the FT that crude oil could top $200 and reach $250 by the end of the year.

“This is not transitory. This is going to be a crude supply shock,” King told the FT summit.

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BofA Sees $200 Barrel Oil

#Goldman #Sachs Sees Further #Oil Price Increases

 

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

EU Uncertainty Furthers Climb in Oil Futures

 

• Oil extends rally as EU members weigh Russian ban, Houthis target Saudi
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• Crude oil futures extend gains as EU mulls Russian oil sanctions

#EFE Keeping An Eye on the World

• Fixing London’s Housing Crisis Means More Risk of Deadly Floods
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• Every Country Is Flunking WHO Air Quality Standard: Report
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GOLDMAN SACHS CONTINUES TO SEE HIGHER PRICES

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#WSJ COMMODITIES CRUNCH - FIRST RULE OF #INVESTING - #MOTHER #NATURE BATS LAST

   

Cash Crunch Drives Wild Moves in Commodities

Exchanges and brokers are demanding more money upfront to trade oil, wheat and natural gas, straining markets amid supply disruptions from war in Ukraine.

Commodity prices are hot right now. But the prices investors are paying in the open market for commodities like coffee, copper or corn can have little to do with the price customers pay at the store. 

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WHAT IS THE LINK WITH RETAIL PRICES?

 

#TALKS GO NO WHERE WHILE #ENERGY MARKETS FACE #TRAUMA

 March 21, 2022

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

OIL, COMMODITIES, RISKS, PRICES, VOLATILITY, ETC. WE ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH NO CLEAR PATH

• Oil gains as Russia-Ukraine talks stall
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• Oil Posts Second Weekly Decline as Volatility Rocks Markets

• The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up
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• The global economy’s growing risks: stagflation, refugees and lockdowns

TALKS CREATE MORE UNKNOWNS

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#Investing #Opportunities Flood Tight #Commodities Markets

 OILPRICE.COM

How To Play The Biggest Commodity Supply Squeeze In History

By Tom Kool

Metals prices aren’t just breaking records … they’re disrupting entire exchanges.

On Wednesday, three-month contract prices for nickel more than doubled in a matter of hours to over $100,000 per ton, causing the London Metal Exchange (LME) to suspend trading over what it called an “unprecedented” event.

Base metals across the board have continued to rise. Copper prices hit an all-time high last week, and Zinc has consistently broken records this month. Aluminum prices on the LME have increased by another 5% on Wednesday alone, on fears of a Russian supply disruption. 

And gold has hit record highs of its own on the invasion of Ukraine’, not to mention high inflation. Some analysts even expect gold prices to triple over the next five years.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is roiling the metals markets beyond recognition …

That’s because Russia is a powerhouse supplier of so many of them, and now the rest of the world fears major supply chain disruptions.

That could be the perfect setup for North American explorers

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Commodities Cheap As Reserves Reach Exhaustion

#Russian Energy #Boycott Could Mean Mass #Poverty in #Germany

 

Boycott of Russian gas and oil ‘could cause mass poverty in Germany

Minister warns an immediate stop to supplies could hurt Germany’s population more than Putin

Philip Oltermann in Berlin

Germany has warned that an immediate boycott of Russian gas and oil supplies could hurt its own population more than Vladimir Putin, bringing mass unemployment and poverty.

“If we flip a switch immediately, there will be supply shortages, even supply stops in Germany,” the economic and energy minister Robert Habeck told public broadcaster ARD on Sunday, as Europe’s largest economy intensely searches to diversify its energy supplies in the medium term.

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BERLIN FEARS MASS POVERTY

#ECONOMY PUSHED TO BRINK BY #ENERGY #PRICES

 March 13, 2022

In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

• Oil settles up but posts biggest weekly decline since Nov
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• Supply Uncertainty Keeps Oil Markets On Edge

• Column: Global diesel shortage raises risk of oil price spike

• November Non-OPEC Oil Production Ticks Up

Such Ups And Downs

Higher #Rates Could #Crash All Asset #Classes

 

Is your portfolio ready for higher interest rates?

BNNBloomberg

By Dale Jackson

 The Bank of Canada's decision to start raising its benchmark interest rate this week should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to their investment portfolios.

The alarm bells for higher borrowing rates have been sounding for over a decade after central banks slashed them to near-zero in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.

• Since then, rates have ebbed and flowed in a tug-of-war between inflation and recession. Most recently, it was the fear of a recession from pandemic-induced lockdowns that kept rates low. Now, concern over long-term inflation as restrictions are lifted have spurred this week’s increase.

For long-term investors saving for retirement, it’s neither good nor bad - just different. A properly-diversified portfolio should be flexible enough to adapt to the potential tectonic shift about to take place.

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Deflation is the Bigger Problem

#Markets Are #Panicking - Not Going to be Pretty

 

Market Panic Is Here

by Andreas Exarheas

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Market panic is here, according to Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson, who made the comment in a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.

In the statement, Dickson noted that Wednesday’s market situation was extreme “by any measure in historical oil pricing terms”, highlighting that it exhibited the largest ever prompt price premium.

“Investors, traders, and politicians alike are scrambling to address the worsening Russia-Ukraine standoff,” Dickson said in the statement.

“The initial upward price reaction after the conflict in Ukraine started six days ago is only intensifying. The current realistic scenario is that a large portion of Russian crude oil, as well as refined oil products, will no longer be palpable to the market and create a supply deficit for the duration of the armed conflict,” Dickson added.

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Editor's Comments

Going to be short here - there is no good news to report and it is starting to look like this could be worse than the 1929 crash because without secure and affordable energy sources it becomes impossible for the economic system to operate. Hyperinflation will cause massive spikes in interest rates and in turn burst the absurd price bubbles that have been created in realty, securities and currency valuations over the past 10 years due to the insanely low Disneyland policy rates administered by the Fed. 

Combine that with unprecedented levels of federal debt financing and you have a recipe for utter financial disaster when the ships come in.

Hang on to your hats folks!

T. A. McNeil

CEO Founder

First Financial Insights

How Bad Can It Get?

#WARNING: CRITICAL NEAR TERM #THREATS TO #HUMANITY

 

CRITICAL NEAR TERM THREATS TO HUMANITY

1 Exponential population growth and its commensurate economic growth on a finite planet. As MIT researcher modeling projected in 1972 we are now near collapse as we have exceeded the planet's carrying capacity. Sadly, we were warned long ago but did little if anything about it. https://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/ 

 

2 Exponential depletion of key industrial materials and energy resources plus freshwater will make it impossible to create and have a low energy future after 2050- if not, sooner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdXdaIsfio8

3 Melting ice caps and particularly the Arctic circle where a BOE (Blue Ocean Event) could occur in 2-3 years and wipe out all life on earth due to ​an ​extreme heat comparable to prior mass extinction events. https://www.scientistswarning.org/2022/01/12/arctic-death-spiral/

4 Nuclear War - as populations grow and resources decline the chances of this event will increase - if we don't do it in Ukraine then Pakistan and India are the next possible conflict situations - as both face serious economic and political stresses due to growing populations and declining resources. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y

5  Ecocide and biosphere destruction are leading to the current 6th extinction of thousands of species, plants, and wildlife annually both on land and sea - in all likelihood also one of the leading causes behind the ​possible lethal ​pandemics among many animals sweeping the planet today and tomorrow. https://www.endecocide.org/de/2015/09/30/stopping-the-sixth-extinction-ecocide-law/

• 6 - Complete Economic Collapse - we are running out of ​the ​key fossil fuel energy and material sources (oil, natural gas, and coal) ​while prices are ​also ​not high enough to entice oil producers to explore and develop properties. Moreover, US debt - both off and on the Federal Reserve balance sheet - is estimated to be over $100 trillion and cannot ​possibly ​be repaid by future generations from the economic production of goods and services as there will be no underlying energy and material resources for such activity which in turn backs the value of the dollar. 
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• Similar events are right now occurring in Lebanon, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Venezuela, et al - all experiencing a collapse in their currencies for these reasons. An imbalance of resources, population, corruption, and national debt.  A situation that is becoming endemic in developing nations.
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• The US dollar may possibly lose its reserve currency status in the near future resulting in domestic hyperinflation bringing famine, massive social unrest, and violent internal conflict.  Another reason for the loss in status is that US bonds are now considered to be trash by top experts - i. e. worthless. Why? They can never be repaid in full without ample future resources and production and they are hence viewed to be in a technical de facto default by leading experts. 
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•  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-former-king-of-his-asset-class-bill-gross-now-says-bonds-are-trash-11630574701
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• Moreover, it is utterly certain that cryptocurrency and blockchain cannot provide any solutions to our physical-mathematical predicaments because they are the greatest hoax and financial Ponzi scam in a long time with no real concrete value or tangible asset backing.
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• Ironically, High Technology and its deities are thus clearly not our saviors nor panacea - as all they really do is just make pillaging the planet much easier and more efficient in the short term. Thereby, their primary role is speeding our path to collapse and extinction. 
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• Also, so what if we can now possibly build fusion nuclear plants  - how will they help us to restore the lost topsoil, replenish freshwater and aquifers, replace non-renewable energy, reverse climate change, restore Arctic Ice and other non-renewable material resources? Not going to happen for 250 million years or so.

THEY ARE NOT HUMANITY'S DEITY nor A PANACEA

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• https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/12/03/is-it-possible-that-the-world-is-approaching-end-times/
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• Quite simply, therefore - the writing is on the proverbial wall. Do the numbers and mathematics.
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• So that is it in a nutshell; meaning we may either only have a few years left or barely enough reserves in terms of energy, fresh water, topsoil, and material resources to get us to 2050. The solutions are not in economic or green energy schemes as we are well over the carrying capacity of the planet. 
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• Population and resource ratios are way out of balance and still growing. We remain pawns subject to the unforgiving physical laws of the universe just like bacteria in a petri dish endlessly pursuing energy and procreating  - thereby causing all the energy available to be consumed. That law being- Entropy. 
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• It is not negotiable.  

        We have always shared this law and its Paradise Lost with all other living cellular species past, present, and future.  

• Any hope of a longer sustainable future however appears to largely rest in achieving a dramatic drop in population below; say,  1 billion in the next decade or so  - albeit such a reduction seems to be merely wishful thinking - as we are too far down the road and beyond tipping points whereby the threats of an Arctic BOE,  lethal worldwide pandemics, global famine and disease, economic and monetary collapse, or nuclear war are very real near term possibilities. We ran out of time to get it right.
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Conclusion

It is very unlikely we can reduce populations in short order or remedy all of the critical threats mentioned. Our biggest mistake? Humanity had failed to understand and apply the implications of the exponential function to the population, climate, ecological, and resource constraints of a finite planet. And now we head towards the same destiny as the other 99% of the species who once lived on and enjoyed the wonderful treasures of this paradise. Now lost.

  This is the greatest shortcoming of the human race.

:1

https://youtu.be/kZA9Hnp3aV4

Energy 2050 #Oilmageddon Looms- Economy Terminally ILL (Part 6)

Energy 2050  Oilmageddon Looms

World Energy to 2050 
Forty Years of Decline

Putting Energy Sources in Perspective
Part 6

By Paul Cherfurka

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/

Putting Energy Sources in Perspective

Figure 11: Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100

Figure 11 shows all the above curves on a single graph, giving us a sense of the relative timing of the various production peaks as well as the rates of increase or decline of the different sources. As you can see, fossil fuels are by far the most important contributors to the world's current energy mix, but oil and natural gas will decline rapidly over the coming decades. By the middle of the century the dominant player is coal, with oil, gas, hydro, nuclear power and renewables making very similar contributions to the world's mid-century energy supply.

  

Figure 12: The Global Energy Mix in 1965, 2005 and 2050

Figure 12 shows the changing contribution of each energy source relative to the others over time.  There are three interesting things to note about this progression.

The first is the large role that coal plays in the global supply picture.  That situation is not entirely unexpected, but it hints at the difficulty we will have trying to replace our dirtiest and most dangerous energy source as our supplies of oil and gas decline.

The second is the increasing diversity of energy sources over time.  This change is a good thing, as it indicates that various regions will have a much wider range of energy options available to them than in the past.

Finally, by mid-century energy sources that do not generate greenhouse gases may be supplying 40% of the world's power as opposed to 13% today and only 5% in 1965.  Combined with an overall (albeit involuntary) reduction in global energy use by 2050, that shift bodes well for reducing the carbon dioxide our civilization exhales into the atmosphere.

Figure 13: Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2100

Figure 13 has all the energy curves added together to show the overall shape of total world energy consumption. This graph aggregates all the rises, peaks and declines to give a sense of the complete energy picture.  The graph shows a strong peak in about 2020, with an ongoing decline out to 2050. The main reason for the decline is the loss of oil and gas. The decline is cushioned by an increase in hydro and renewables over the middle of the century, and averages out to 1% per year.

Fuel vs. Electricity

The energy we use can be broadly categorized into two classes, fuel and electricity.  The former consists of oil and gas, the two sources that will be in decline over the next half century.  The amount of electricity we produce from all other sources including coal will increase, though not enough to offset the decline in fuels in terms of the energy they supply.  Figure 14 shows show how the split between the two classes of energy will change over the next 45 years.

Figure 14: Fuel and Electricity Use, Today and 2050

In addition to the loss of transportation mobility it represents, the loss of the enormous contributions of oil and natural gas means that the total amount of energy available to humanity by the middle of the century may be only 70% of the amount we use now. That shortfall contains an ominous message for our future that is the subject of the next section.

Next

Part 7: Effects and Conclusion

(February 27, 2016)