Goldman Sachs Warns Brazil Heading For Deep Trouble

Brazil Retail Sales Drop Most On

 Record, Goldman Warns Will Get

 Worse

Just a few months ago, we warned Brazil's economy was on the verge of collapse as the fiscal situation was deteriorating rapidly. It appears, judging by the most recent data from the oil-rich nation, that we were right. Broad retail sales have now declined for five consecutive months with the seasonally adjusted broad retail sales index now at the same level as early 2012. Core retail sales declined 3.5% YoY during April (weakest print since Aug 2003) andbroad retail sales declined by an even larger 8.5% YoY (lowest on record), and as Goldman warns, the outlook for private consumption and retail sales in the near term remains very weak.

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INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - Beware Liquidity Drying Up Global Bond Markets

Liquidity Mirage Causes Volatility

In Government Bonds

At the moment, volatility in the government bond market continues to be a huge theme in the market and one that investors need to consider and address.  Whatever the initial causes of the adjustment in relative and absolute yield curves and there are plenty of potential culprits – Federal Reserve rate expectations, European Central Bank quantitative easing, inflation forecasts etc. – the subsequent severe volatility has been without doubt exacerbated by the lack of liquidity.

What is particularly worrying is that this lack of liquidity is occurring in global government bond markets, which are deemed to be the most-liquid fixed-income sectors.  To highlight this issue, Bloomberg reported that on ICAP's  BrokerTec  platform's (an electronic trading system for FI markets) April volumes fell 14 per cent from a year ago and were the lowest in six years. Read More.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS  - "Today's Edge" 

Sooner or later the bond market will run out of bigger fools as inflation is much higher than reported by governments while investors are losing principal with negative real returns. In essence we are seeing a global debasement of all currencies under present policies.

When the bonds crash they will bring down the markets too. Time has come to unload those highflyers that have no earning because they can drop like a stone from dollars to pennies, all in the blink of young girl's eyes.

International Offices

May 19, 2015