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Showing posts with label FED. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FED. Show all posts

Monday, 14 March 2016

China on Verge of Massive Labor Unrest - Protests on Upswing


"Mr. Zeng, 41, had orchestrated successful campaigns against influential factories and state-owned firms in Guangdong and tutored a generation of labor activists. After his arrest, state news outlets began a smear campaign accusing him of hiring prostitutes, stealing from workers and conspiring with hostile foreign forces."

The New York Times


Labor Protests Multiply in China as Economy Slows, Worrying Leaders



GUANGZHOU, China — For nearly seven years, Li Wei rose before dawn for his 10-hour shift at the steel plant, returning home each night soaked in sweat, the clank of heavy machinery still ringing in his ears. But last month, the 31-year-old welder stood outside the plant with hundreds of co-workers, picketing against pay cuts and singing patriotic battle hymns.
Image result for read article button
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html?_r=0 


India's big move into solar is 
already paying off  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made access to electricity a top priority, and has set the goal of making 24-hour power available to all 1.3 billion Indians. Currently, even India's biggest cities suffer from frequent power outages.



Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia have apparently agreed to a production freeze. This is meaningless theater but it helped lift oil prices 37% from just more than $26 in mid-February to almost $36 per barrel last week. That is a lot of added revenue for Saudi Arabia and Russia but it will do nothing to balance the over-supplied world oil market.


If the employment gains were indeed as strong as the Fed, and the BLS, currently suggest; the labor force participation rate should be rising strongly. This has been the case during every other period in history where employment growth increased. Since the financial crisis, despite employment gains, the labor force participation rate has continued to fall.
This suggests that at some point in the future, we will likely see negative revisions to the employment data showing weaker growth than currently thought.





A Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short: Here's Why



When we last looked at the $2.9 billion Horseman Capital, we reported that not only has the fund which many have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has achieved that return while been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012.
In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. Its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

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Monday, 14 September 2015

It Makes No Sense To Raise Fed Rates, & More News






Why The Fed Would Be Insane To Raise Rates: The Rising U.S. Dollar


The USD strengthening since last July is the core driver of the global recession.
The parlor game of the moment is laying odds on the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates, leave rates unchanged, or (gasp!) hint at future stimulus. There are certainly a multitude of inputs to the Fed's decision, and a variety of potential consequences, but only one really matters: the effect on foreign exchange/currency markets.

It's not that difficult to understand the one dynamic that matters. If the Fed raise yields/interest rates in the U.S., that makes the U.S. currency, i.e. the U.S. dollar (USD), more attractive.
Higher yield = more attractive, especially when coupled with the liquid market for U.S. Treasuries and the relative safety of the dollar vis a vis other currencies issued by falling-into-recession nations and trading blocs.

Jim Simons was a mathematician and cryptographer who realized: the complex math he used to break codes could help explain patterns in the world of finance. Billions later, he’s working to support the next generation of math teachers and scholars. TED’s Chris Anderson sits down with Simons to talk about his extraordinary life in numbers.


The AP reports that some driver advocates like the Center for Auto Safety were concerned that this pledge doesn’t do enough to get automatic breaking systems into cars. Those advocates would rather the government legally require cars to have automatic breaking systems, instead of rely on a voluntary promise to keep drivers safe. Another concern is that automatic braking systems are generally sold as add-ons to luxury vehicles, which would put them out of reach of most consumers


Credit default swaps are contracts that let investors buy protection to hedge against the risk that corporate or sovereign debt issuers will not meet their payment obligations.
The market peaked at $58 trillion in 2007, according to the Bank for International Settlements, but shrank to $16 trillion seven years later as investors better understood its risks


One often wonders why governments indebt themselves for so much more than they can ever hope to pay… Here, Western economists, bankers, traders, Ivy League academics and professors, Nobel laureates and the mainstream media have a quick and monolithic reply: because all nations need “investment and investors” if they wish to build highways, power plants, schools, airports, hospitals, raise armies, service infrastructures and a long list of et ceteras, economic and national activities are all about.



This ranking sorts 61 countries by price, earnings needed to buy a gallon, and annual income spent on fuel.

BRASÍLIA — The president of Brazil should have been ecstatic. She had just won re-election after an intense campaign in which she fiercely defended her role in making Brazil, for a few fleeting years, a rising star on the global stage.
But in the days after her victory last October, President Dilma Rousseff was worried, confronted in private deliberations with her closest advisers by signs that Brazil’s triumphs were at risk of coming undone.
“We went too far,” Aloízio Mercadante, Ms. Rousseff’s chief of staff, acknowledged publicly this month, describing the sense of alarm as the dust settled after the election and Ms. Rousseff and her aides grappled with the weaknesses in Brazil’s economy.



A Passing Thought...


Wednesday, 2 September 2015

Policy-Makers Will Save Stock Market At All Costs, & More


 Who knows what will trigger Fed intervention; that information is asymmetric, i.e. only known to Fed insiders.
Correspondent Bart D. recently speculated that the U.S. stock market was now "too big to fail," that is, that it was too integral to the global financial system and economy to be allowed to fail, i.e. decline 40+% as in previous bubble bursts.
he U.S. stock market is integral to the global financial system in two ways.Now that investment banks, pension funds, insurers and multitudes of 401K retirement plans are dependent on current equity valuations, a crash would impair virtually the entire spectrum of finance from hedge funds to banks to insurers to pension plans.
A decimation of these sectors would impact the U.S. economy and thus the global economy very negatively.


Asean's biggest companies tempt fate with sixfold debt jump since '98 crisis



Total obligations at Wilmar, which grows oil palms, doubled to US$22.4 billion since 2010, while net debt rose 20 per cent. The jump was partly due to its expansion into the sugar industry, the company said by e-mail on Aug 28, adding that revenue rose ...


 China's Bond-Rating Firms Dole Out Downgrades


“Many corporates' profitability and debt payment ability are definitely hurt,” he ... Still, Sinosteel's two billion yuan ($313 million) domestic bond has held up well.




NPC adopts new measures as local debt problem looms large



29 the State Council's proposal to cap outstanding local debt at 16 trillion (US$2.5 trillion) in 2015, leaving 1 trillionyuan (US$157 billion) for new debt to be ...


REFILE-Fitch warns of downgrade risk in Malaysia's rating outlook


The current account surplus has shrunk from a peak in 2008 to 7.6 billion ringgit in the second quarter this year, down from 10 billion in the previous quarter.




Brazilian Real Falls to 12-Year Low as 

Deficit Projected in 2016



Image result for brazil economy


... have lower immediate social costs but could lead to another credit downgrade. ... response to questions from Bloomberg that growth, fiscal and debt dynamics ...




U.S. Stocks Suffer 3rd-Worst Drop Of Year On Weak China Data

Analyst sees little relief for market other than technical support


U.S. stocks suffered their third-worst loss of the year on Tuesday as part of a global rout sparked by a new round of weak Chinese economic data.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a three-year low, triggering a wide selloff in stocks across Asia and Europe that then spread to the U.S.
The S&P 500 SPX, -2.96%  sank 58.33 points, or 3%, to 1,913, with all of its 10 sectors in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.84%  lost 469.68 points, or 2.8%, to 16,058.35. All 30 of its components closed lower.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.94%  slumped 140.40 points, or 2.9%, to 4,636.10, falling into negative territory for the year.
Tuesday marked the third-biggest daily drop of the year for the S&P 500 and the Dow, while for the Nasdaq, it is the third worst by percentage decline.
“The market is being driven by emotion,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth LLC.


Disappointing Chinese manufacturing data weigh on global stock markets on Tuesday.


A Passing Thought...


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