Post Crash Alert: Devastated Pension Plans Adding To Global Woes, & More #News

Did Global Stock Market Meltdown Hurt UK Pension Schemes?

The ‘Black Monday' stock market turmoil on 24 August saw the FTSE 100 index plummet 14% below its peak of almost 7,000 points in February.

Investors across the globe began panic selling stocks, particularly in commodities, amid fears of the much anticipated growth slowdown in China.

While about £96bn was wiped off share values in the UK blue chip index, the Dow fell 1,000 points on opening and the Shanghai Composite experienced total losses of 35% since June.

Hymans Robertson put the total pain for UK defined benefit (DB) schemes at a staggering £30bn surge in aggregate deficits in a day, as equities values and bond yields headed south. 

Commentators are divided on whether the event was merely a market correction or an indication of more chaos to come.

But what many agree on is the fact that China is no longer the world's economic growth engine, posing the question of where future investment returns will come from.

How China's economic slowdown could weigh on the rest of the world 

In the year to July, China's customs agency reports that imports from Australia are down by $15bn dollars on the same period last year - a loss which is already equal to 1% of Australia's GDP, and many other countries stand to lose out to similar degrees. China's imports overall are down by 14.6% over 2015. Find out what happens if this decline continues for the rest of the year - or worsens - and how that loss compares to each country's GDP

Deflationary Collapse Ahead?

Eventually, even at near zero interest rates, the amount of debt becomes too high, relative to income. Governments become afraid of adding more debt. Young people find student loans so burdensome that they put off buying homes and cars. The economic “pump” that used to result from rising wages and rising debt slows, slowing the growth of the world economy. With slow economic growth comes low demand for commodities that are used to make homes, cars, factories, and other goods. This slow economic growth is what brings the persistent trend toward low commodity prices experienced in recent years.

The Amazing Harbinger of the Dow's 531-Point Slide 

A strange thing happened fifteen minutes after stock markets opened for regular trading on Friday, August 21, 2015. At least some people on the nationally prominent MarketWatch website were privileged to see in advance what would prove to be the full-day losses for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the Standard & Poors 500 (SPX) indices. This harbinger or revelation of what was to come occurred six hours and fifteen minutes before the market's close. The uncanny trend projections, or perhaps target prices, were made available while the Dow was down about 180 points -- more than 350 points above its astonishing Friday close.

What If The "Crash" Is as Rigged as Everything Else? 

There is an almost touching faith that markets are rigged when they loft higher, but unrigged when they crash. Who's to say this crash isn't rigged? A few things about this "crash" (11% decline from all time highs now qualifies as a "crash") don't pass the sniff test.

Australia 'sleepwalking into a mess' 

"Unless we recognise that, and recognise that the productivity challenge and the fiscal challenge are intimately linked, and we have to deal with both of them, then we will go on continuing to repeat the mistakes that we've been making and that will get us into a situation that none of us want to be in."

Dr Parkinson earlier told a room of more than 90 corporate, community and academic leaders that productivity reform could not be detached from fiscal reform.

China  Meltdown So Large That Losses Eclipsed BRICS  Peers 

Take the combined size of all stocks traded in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, multiply by two, and you'll get a sense of how much China's market value has slumped since the meltdown started. Shanghai-listed equities erased $5 trillion since reaching a seven-year high in June, half their value, as margin traders closed out bullish bets and concern deepened that valuations were unjustified by the weak economic outlook. 

The four other countries in the BRICS universe have a combined market capitalisation of $2.8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

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Global Financial System Headed Towards Collapse, & More

Deflationary Collapse Ahead?

Summation

The analysis that comes closest to the situation we are reaching today is the 1972 analysis of limits of a finite world, published in the book “The Limits to Growth” by Donella Meadows and others. It models what can be expected to happen, if population and resource extraction grow as expected, gradually tapering off as diminishing returns are encountered. The base model seems to indicate that a collapse will happen about now.

The shape of the downturn is not likely to be correct in Figure 5.  One reason is that the model was put together based on physical quantities of goods and people, without considering the role the financial system, particularly debt, plays. I expect that debt would tend to make collapse quicker. Also, the modelers had no experience with interactions in a contracting world economy, so had no idea regarding what adjustments to make. The authors have even said that the shapes of the curves, after the initial downturn, cannot be relied on. So we end up with something like Figure 6, as about all that we can rely on.

If we are indeed facing the downturn forecast by Limits to Growth modeling, we are facing  a predicament that doesn’t have a real solution. We can make the best of what we have today, and we can try to strengthen bonds with family and friends. We can try to diversify our financial resources, so if one bank encounters problems early on, it won’t be a huge problem. We can perhaps keep a little food and water on hand, to tide us over a temporary shortage. We can study our religious beliefs for guidance.

Some people believe that it is possible for groups of survivalists to continue, given adequate preparation. This may or may not be true. The only kind of renewables that we can truly count on for the long term are those used by our forefathers, such as wood, draft animals, and wind-driven boats. Anyone who decides to use today’s technology, such as solar panels and a pump adapted for use with solar panels, needs to plan for the day when that technology fails. At that point, hard decisions will need to be made regarding how the group will live without the technology.

We can’t say that no one warned us about the predicament we are facing. Instead, we chose not to listen. Public officials gave a further push in this direction, by channeling research funds toward distant theoretically solvable problems, instead of understanding the true nature of what we are up against. Too many people took what Hubbert said literally, without understanding that what he offered was a best-case scenario, if we could find something equivalent to a perpetual motion machine to help us out of our predicament.

Commodity prices just slumped to their lowest level since 1999

Commodity prices just slumped to their lowest level since the end of the 20th century, according to a widely used Bloomberg index.

The index is made up of 22 major traded commodities and has been sliding recently, but the chaos in Asian markets hit prices particularly hard on Monday.

 The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

This Agenda is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It also seeks to end poverty and hunger, and ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment.

In September 2015, Agenda 21 Will Be Transformed Into The 2030 Agenda

the 2030 Agenda is a template for governing the entire planet.

 

Humans have already used up 2015's supply of Earth's resources – Analysis

Earth ‘overshoot day’ – the day each year when our demands on the planet outstrip its ability to regenerate – comes six days earlier than 2014, with world’s population currently consuming the equivalent of 1.6 planets a year

Oil Price Collapse Triggers Currency Crisis In Emerging Markets 

Other countries now feel pressure to let their currencies depreciate, and if they have adhered to a currency peg up until now, some are being pushed to float. Kazakhstan decided to scrap its currency peg last week, and the tenge promptly lost 23 percent of its value against the dollar. Vietnam also devalued the dong.

The devaluations tend to have a cascading effect, with other emerging markets coming under increasing pressure from their competitors.

Turning red to blue for solar energy 

Solar cells are based on semiconductor materials. Non-conductors—into which we will carelessly toss semiconductors—have what is called a bandgap. This is the energy required to excite an electron from a bound state to a conducting state. In the bound state, electrons stay in the vicinity of the atoms to which they are attached, while in the conducting state, they are free to move. Solar cells use sunlight to excite electrons from the bound state to the conducting state, and the electrons give up that energy when they perform work for us.

Rusted Development: The Fight Against Corrosion Creep 

Despite such vast expenditures, rust cannot be stopped, only slowed. No matter how tall our buildings, strong our bridges, or graceful our national monuments, they’re all, ultimately, headed for the trash heap. The best we can do is add another coat of paint and hope to forestall the inevitable. Rust, in other words, reveals a fundamental truth: it’s a red flaky trace of entropy. It ensures that everything that’s here today will be gone tomorrow.

Stocks Correct, Panic Ensues. The End Of The World?

The four major U.S. stock market indices finally corrected after a 9-month sideways trend. The ‘big’ news this week for stocks was undoubtedly that the four indices all closed below their 200-day moving average, which IS an important breakdown.

At Secular Investor, we believe the TED-spread is one of the most reliable indicators of stress in the financial system. It should be considered a ‘seismograph’ signaling that something is brewing, as explained some time ago here.

The TED-spread has ‘broken out’ this week, after a steady rise for a year and a half. It now has the highest reading since ‘QE infinity’ started at the end of 2012.

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