China on Verge of Massive Labor Unrest - Protests on Upswing

"Mr. Zeng, 41, had orchestrated successful campaigns against influential factories and state-owned firms in Guangdong and tutored a generation of labor activists. After his arrest, state news outlets began a smear campaign accusing him of hiring prostitutes, stealing from workers and conspiring with hostile foreign forces."

The New York Times

Labor Protests Multiply in China as Economy Slows, Worrying Leaders

GUANGZHOU, China — For nearly seven years, Li Wei rose before dawn for his 10-hour shift at the steel plant, returning home each night soaked in sweat, the clank of heavy machinery still ringing in his ears. But last month, the 31-year-old welder stood outside the plant with hundreds of co-workers, picketing against pay cuts and singing patriotic battle hymns.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html?_r=0 

India's big move into solar is 

already paying off  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made access to electricity a top priority, and has set the goal of making 24-hour power available to all 1.3 billion Indians. Currently, even India's biggest cities suffer from frequent power outages.

Oil Prices Heading For A Fall, Possibly Hard  

Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia have apparently agreed to a production freeze. This is meaningless theater but it helped lift oil prices 37% from just more than $26 in mid-February to almost $36 per barrel last week. That is a lot of added revenue for Saudi Arabia and Russia but it will do nothing to balance the over-supplied world oil market.

The Fed's Got A Problem  

If the employment gains were indeed as strong as the Fed, and the BLS, currently suggest; the labor force participation rate should be rising strongly. This has been the case during every other period in history where employment growth increased. Since the financial crisis, despite employment gains, the labor force participation rate has continued to fall.

This suggests that at some point in the future, we will likely see negative revisions to the employment data showing weaker growth than currently thought.

A Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short: Here's Why

When we last looked at the $2.9 billion Horseman Capital, we reported that not only has the fund which many have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has achieved that return while been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012.

In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. Its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

READ  MORE

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-11/top-performing-hedge-fund-just-went-record-short-it-explains-why

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

Panic Grows as Moody's Cuts China's Rating Outlook

China  Another  Enron?

Really, when you think about it , what is  the  difference between the two, when they both  are great benefactors of ghosts and zombies and then go on to apply the most opaque and misleading accounting practises, at all levels of organization with utter impunity? No wonder investors and creditors are heading for the hills. To answer the question: there is no difference - and the results are sure to be  the same.

Now  that   brings up the next question  regarding Bernie Madoff...

Moody's Cuts China Outlook to Negative

US ratings agency Moody's has cut its outlook for China from "stable" to "negative".

While reaffirming its current debt rating, the agency warned that reforms were needed to avoid a downgrade.

Moody's said the change in outlook was based on expectations that Beijing's fiscal strength would continue to decline.

The negative outlook comes on the heels of fresh data suggesting China's economy is continuing to lose steam.

Moody's said it was concerned over China's incomplete implementation of much needed reforms.

High debt burden

"Without credible and efficient reforms, China's GDP growth would slow more markedly as a high debt burden dampens business investment and demographics turn increasingly unfavourable," Moody's said in a note.

'Even God Forgot This Place': Welcome to the Oilfields of Azerbaijan  

https://news.vice.com/article/even-god-forgot-this-place-welcome-to-the-oilfields-of-azerbaijan

It's unlikely that any European Games spectators will make it to Balakhani, yet the coveted crude that fuels what was the world's first oil industry was originally dredged from this exact spot. In 2013, while Europe was still bleakly trudging through recession, Azerbaijan sold an average of 880,000 barrels of oil per day, and was one of the world's fastest-growing economies for several years.

Chesapeake’s AIG Moment: Energy Giant Faces $1 Billion In Collateral Calls  

To be sure, the bond promptly surged, even as the stock priced tumbled, on what was seen as a very bondholder-friendly action (and thus to the detriment of shareholders) and hit a price of 95 cents while the stock tumbled by 15%, generating a 30% return for anyone who had decided to go along. At that moment we urged anyone in the trade to take their profits and go home, taking a few weeks, or the rest of 2016, off.

Douglas Rushkoff’s vision for a new, better world  

Today, the equivalent of those bankers are shareholders. They expect not just interest, but tremendous returns on their initial investments. They witnessed the success of Facebook and Google and want those sorts of returns, too. So they put money into a company like Twitter, and then expect to earn back 100 or 1,000 times on their original investment. The fact that Twitter makes 500 million dollars a quarter is considered an abject failure by the investors. And so Twitter must look for some way to “pivot”—that is, change from a super successful company that lets people send 140-character messages, into something else.

China  Prepares  Massive  Lay-offs and Compensation

Beijing has prepared a plan to lay off five to six million state workers in the next three years, Reuters reports. According to the media, the authorities are aiming to tackle overcapacity and pollution and have prepared lots of cash to prevent social unrest.

Remember  Ghost  Cities?

(Curator's  Vdeo Note) 

 

China will spend 150 billion yuan ($23 billion) in compensation for laid-off workers in just the coal and steel sectors. The overall job cut could reach 5-6 million workers in sectors facing a supply glut, the media reports, quoting two ‘reliable’ sources close to the Chinese leadership.

The figure will grow according to the report, as more spending will be needed to help other industries. China will also have to pay to handle the debt left behind by ‘zombie’ state companies. These are firms that continue to operate even though they are insolvent or near bankruptcy; some of them continue to pay workers fearing the social impact.

READ MORE

https://www.rt.com/business/334108-china-layoff-steel-coal/ 
 

Plus more...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-layoffs-exclusive-idUKKCN0W33D

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

Good Or Bad News? As US Oil Production Peaks Again, & More

US Oil Production Nears Previous Peak

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review came out a couple of days ago. The data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is July 2015.

US consumption of total liquids, or as the EIA calls it, petroleum products supplied, reached 20,000,000 barrels per day for the first time since February of 2008.

Related: OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

Something I never noticed before, consumption started to drop in January 2008, seven months before the price, along with world production, started to drop in August 2008. This had to be a price driven decline. Could the current June and July increase in consumption be price driven also?

The Fed Is Dead Wrong 

The Fed won’t raise rates until the world economy looks healthier, but the world economy is actually OK. Even China is OK. (Apple said that the China consumer is pretty healthy). World economic numbers will look much better in 2016, and central banks outside the U.S. will begin raising rates … and that will finally give the Fed the cover it needs to raise.

Are There Investing Opportunities For The Remainder Of 2015? 

The seriousness of last week’s shocking action in the market is shown by the volatility index, which posted its second highest reading since its inception in 1990. This is comparable to the great crash of 2008/9.

An Escalating Migrant Crisis and an Intensifying Search for Solutions 

Many migrants are crossing from Turkey to Greece, Macedonia and Serbia before entering Hungary and then moving on to wealthier countries in northern Europe. (There is an important legal distinction between a migrant who has fled his or her country and a refugee seeking asylum.) The conditions in which they would wait out approval of their applications in Germany and Sweden are better than in places such as Hungary or Greece.

Everything you’ve heard about China’s stock market crash is wrong 

Both moves—the government pulling back from its market bailout and the currency devaluation—stem from the same ominous problem: China’s leaders are scrambling to find the money to keep its economy running. To understand the broader forces that led to this predicament, here’s a chart-based explainer tracing its origins.

The Cross Of The Moment 

Fermi's Paradox, climate change, capitalism, and collapse are some of the subjects discussed in this feature length documentary on the environmental crisis. Interviewees include Bill McKibben, Gary Snyder, Derrick Jensen, Peter D. Ward, Jill Stein, Bill Patzert, Guy McPherson and other top academics, scientists and public intellectuals.

Why So Much Oil Price Volatility? Blame The Speculators

Oil prices crashed last week only to rebound at lightning speed. On August 28, oil prices surged 10 percent, the largest one-day gain in seven years. So, what happens next for oil prices?

On the face of it, the crash and massive rebound makes little sense, with many oil market analysts undoubtedly left shaking their heads.

But there is a logic to what unfolded, just not the logic of the physical market for crude. Oil prices, as if we needed a reminder, are largely driven by speculation. Why else would oil prices plummet by five percent, then spike by 10 percent just a few days later? Not much changed in terms of actual supply and demand of oil in the intervening days.

Sure, Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on some oil shipments from Nigeria, as two pipelines had to be shut down. That could interrupt some oil supplies. But other than that, the physical market for crude didn’t see a whole lot of change in just a few days’ time.

A Passing Thought...

No Doubt FED Is Manipulating Inflation Numbers, & More #News

Platinum Wealth Partners' Insights

Any serious investor who believes that the CPI numbers (etc.) created by governments everywhere are real and accurate is the sort of bigger fool everyone is looking for - to support  many ventures. Now, sooner or later, the markets are going to wake up to  this reality,inclusive of  China, to Greece to Brazil and  the USA, plus many more - and then watch the proverbial "you-know-what ' hit the fan.

In turn, the spin doctors and other Pinocchios will be fully employed in very secure long-term activities as they seek to baffle the feeble-minded towards ratification and consumption. So yes, Eric Sprott is right.- so Is Noam Chomsky; so was John Steinbeck..

Never forget Arthur Anderson, Enron , China the Fed. and all the rest. For as always, remember this utter wisdom -  figures lie, only because liars figure. 

Beware, and good luck!

August 31, 2015

Eric Sprott Was Right, Inflation Is Rising

Eric showed the above table in his presentation. It shows that the true level of inflation, a persistent increase in prices, has been sitting around 10% since 2011. Indeed, a far worse picture than what the US Federal Reserve paints. The Fed argues that prices have been rising below 2% for the past four years. That said, the Fed doesn’t include food, petrol and taxes in its inflation index. This is similar to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation calculation.

But then who needs petrol and food, right?

So it’s not surprising that Jim Rickard’s, over at Strategic Intelligence, argues that there’s no worse forecaster in the world than the US Fed.

You may have noticed each year that Australian healthcare companies raise their premiums by roughly 6%. Well, costs are also rising over in the US.

I’ve been speaking to many US citizens up here at the conference. The word on the street is that Obamacare is one of the worst policies of all time. It’s legally forced those who can’t afford health care to buy; at the same time, hiking insurance premiums for those who require modest healthcare.

And it’s only going to get worse…

Optimistic About Inflation, Stanley 

Fischer Suggests

 That Fed Will Stick to Plan on Rates

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation shows that prices rose 0.3 percent during the 12 months ending in July, well below the 2 percent annual pace the Fed considers healthy. A narrower measure excluding food and oil prices, which the Fed regards as more predictive, increased 1.2 percent over that same period.

Printing Money Goes Haywire in Venezuela 

Venezuela seems to be hovering on the edge of tipping into hyperinflation. Or perhaps it has already fallen into the abyss. Given the paucity of official data -- the none-too-believable official figures were last published in February -- it's a little hard to tell.

China Construction Bank Posts Zero Profit Growth on Weak Economy 

Industrial overcapacity, a build-up of corporate debt and a $5 trillion stock-market slump are making it harder for Premier Li Keqiang to prevent a deeper economic slowdown. The combined earnings of China’s five biggest banks are projected to rise 2 percent this year, the least since at least 2004, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The Coddling of the American Mind 

There’s a saying common in education circles: Don’t teach students what to think; teach them how to think. The idea goes back at least as far as Socrates. Today, what we call the Socratic method is a way of teaching that fosters critical thinking, in part by encouraging students to question their own unexamined beliefs, as well as the received wisdom of those around them. Such questioning sometimes leads to discomfort, and even to anger, on the way to understanding.

Bond Market Explosion Not Stoppable: Craig Hemke 

What I really worry about is that transition from one financial scheme to the next is never done peacefully. The hegemon that has the printing press, that has the reserve currency, they don’t just sit back and say we’ve had our time in the sun. Now it’s your turn. No, they fight as hard as they can to protect and defend that. That’s my biggest concern.

Lies You Will Hear As The

 Economic Collapse 

Progresses

It is undeniable; the final collapse triggers are upon us, triggers alternative economists have been warning about since the initial implosion of 2008. In the years since the derivatives disaster, there has been no end to the absurd and ludicrous propaganda coming out of mainstream financial outlets and as the situation in markets becomes worse, the propaganda will only increase. This might seem counter-intuitive to many. You would think that the more obvious the economic collapse becomes, the more alternative analysts will be vindicated and the more awake and aware the average person will be. Not necessarily...

 

In fact, the mainstream spin machine is going into high speed the more negative data is exposed and absorbed into the markets. If you know your history, then you know that this is a common tactic by the establishment elite to string the public along with false hopes so that they do not prepare or take alternative measures while the system crumbles around their ears. At the onset of the Great Depression the same strategies were used. Consider if you've heard similar quotes to these in the mainstream news over the past couple months:

A Passing Thought...