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#BIG #PLAYERS SEE #OIL AT $200 By 2022-End

  OILPRICE.COM Top Oil Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End-2022 By  Irina Slav  - Mar 24, 2022, A number of big oil traders now predict crud...

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Showing posts with label speculators. oil prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label speculators. oil prices. Show all posts

Wednesday, 9 March 2016

IMF Confirms Global #Economy Crashing



IMF Says World is at Risk of 'Economic Derailment'


First deputy managing director of the IMF, David Lipton, centre, says the world is at a delicate juncture

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy faces a growing "risk of economic derailment" and must take steps to boost global demand.
David Lipton, second in command at the IMF, outlined some of these risks in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Washington on Tuesday.
"The IMF's latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline," he said. "We are clearly at a delicate juncture." 
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Coal provides about a third of Oregon's electricity, but most of it is imported from Utah, Montana and Wyoming. The state only has one operating coal-fired power plant, the 36-year-old Boardman facility supplying about 550 megawatts, but it is due to shut down by 2020.
State Republicans criticized the bill as leading to higher electricity costs for households but Pacific Power, a large Oregon utility, answered that the move to renewables would only raise costs by less than 1 percent by 2030, the newspaper said. The other major utility in the state, Portland General Electric, also backed the deal.



Economists (like me) take a wider perspective. We tend to focus on markets as aggregates rather than on individual firms. We also see government as an economic actor in its own right, providing public goods and other essentials that markets don’t because of externalities and market failure. We know the “logic” of government leads it to overreach, but most of us don’t imagine that we can live without it



Recently it occurred to me that the wave pool provides a metaphor for a complex, but disquieting phenomena that I've have been writing about at Oil-price.net for some time now -for previous articles see 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015.
For anyone who has read one of these pieces you'll know how I have described that every three to four years volatility in the price of oil surges upwards as if spurred by an unseen wave machine.



China's Export Slump Shows Growth Push Hinges on Local Demand


Image result for china economic disaster


China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep the economy humming at home while trade acts as a brake on growth.

The week-long Chinese new year holidays fell in February this year, closing factories and curbing shipments. That saw exports tumble 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. 

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Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Good Or Bad News? As US Oil Production Peaks Again, & More






US Oil Production Nears Previous Peak



The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review came out a couple of days ago. The data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is July 2015.







US consumption of total liquids, or as the EIA calls it, petroleum products supplied, reached 20,000,000 barrels per day for the first time since February of 2008.
Something I never noticed before, consumption started to drop in January 2008, seven months before the price, along with world production, started to drop in August 2008. This had to be a price driven decline. Could the current June and July increase in consumption be price driven also?



The Fed won’t raise rates until the world economy looks healthier, but the world economy is actually OK. Even China is OK. (Apple said that the China consumer is pretty healthy). World economic numbers will look much better in 2016, and central banks outside the U.S. will begin raising rates … and that will finally give the Fed the cover it needs to raise.



The seriousness of last week’s shocking action in the market is shown by the volatility index, which posted its second highest reading since its inception in 1990. This is comparable to the great crash of 2008/9.


Many migrants are crossing from Turkey to Greece, Macedonia and Serbia before entering Hungary and then moving on to wealthier countries in northern Europe. (There is an important legal distinction between a migrant who has fled his or her country and a refugee seeking asylum.) The conditions in which they would wait out approval of their applications in Germany and Sweden are better than in places such as Hungary or Greece.


Both moves—the government pulling back from its market bailout and the currency devaluation—stem from the same ominous problem: China’s leaders are scrambling to find the money to keep its economy running. To understand the broader forces that led to this predicament, here’s a chart-based explainer tracing its origins.



Fermi's Paradox, climate change, capitalism, and collapse are some of the subjects discussed in this feature length documentary on the environmental crisis. Interviewees include Bill McKibben, Gary Snyder, Derrick Jensen, Peter D. Ward, Jill Stein, Bill Patzert, Guy McPherson and other top academics, scientists and public intellectuals.


Why So Much Oil Price Volatility? Blame The Speculators



Oil prices crashed last week only to rebound at lightning speed. On August 28, oil prices surged 10 percent, the largest one-day gain in seven years. So, what happens next for oil prices?
On the face of it, the crash and massive rebound makes little sense, with many oil market analysts undoubtedly left shaking their heads.
But there is a logic to what unfolded, just not the logic of the physical market for crude. Oil prices, as if we needed a reminder, are largely driven by speculation. Why else would oil prices plummet by five percent, then spike by 10 percent just a few days later? Not much changed in terms of actual supply and demand of oil in the intervening days.
Sure, Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on some oil shipments from Nigeria, as two pipelines had to be shut down. That could interrupt some oil supplies. But other than that, the physical market for crude didn’t see a whole lot of change in just a few days’ time.





A Passing Thought...

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