ERRATIC #EVENTS AND SURPRISES CONTINUE TO PLAUGE #ENERGY #MARKETS

 

March 28, 2022

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

• Oil Settles Up this Week with Saudi Arabian Facilities Under Attack
• 
  
• Crude oil futures steady to higher as supply concerns ease after EU summit

TOP #EFE TEAM CAPTURING THE FIELD ACTION

• Oil slips with some concerns easing over Kazakh supplies
• 
  
• High Gasoline Prices Are Starting To Hurt Demand

OTHER MID-EAST CONFLICTS AFFECT OIL STORAGES

" no where to run, there is no where to hide"

IMF Confirms Global #Economy Crashing

IMF Says World is at Risk of 'Economic Derailment'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy faces a growing "risk of economic derailment" and must take steps to boost global demand.

David Lipton, second in command at the IMF, outlined some of these risks in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Washington on Tuesday.

"The IMF's latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline," he said. "We are clearly at a delicate juncture." 

READ MORE

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35761017

Oregon To Be First U.S. State To Ban Coal-Fired Power  

Coal provides about a third of Oregon's electricity, but most of it is imported from Utah, Montana and Wyoming. The state only has one operating coal-fired power plant, the 36-year-old Boardman facility supplying about 550 megawatts, but it is due to shut down by 2020.

State Republicans criticized the bill as leading to higher electricity costs for households but Pacific Power, a large Oregon utility, answered that the move to renewables would only raise costs by less than 1 percent by 2030, the newspaper said. The other major utility in the state, Portland General Electric, also backed the deal.

The Seeds of Destruction  

Economists (like me) take a wider perspective. We tend to focus on markets as aggregates rather than on individual firms. We also see government as an economic actor in its own right, providing public goods and other essentials that markets don’t because of externalities and market failure. We know the “logic” of government leads it to overreach, but most of us don’t imagine that we can live without it

How oil price volatility explains these uncertain times  

Recently it occurred to me that the wave pool provides a metaphor for a complex, but disquieting phenomena that I've have been writing about at Oil-price.net for some time now -for previous articles see 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015.

For anyone who has read one of these pieces you'll know how I have described that every three to four years volatility in the price of oil surges upwards as if spurred by an unseen wave machine.

China's Export Slump Shows Growth Push Hinges on Local Demand

China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep the economy humming at home while trade acts as a brake on growth.

The week-long Chinese new year holidays fell in February this year, closing factories and curbing shipments. That saw exports tumble 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. 

 READ MORE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/china-export-slump-shows-growth-push-depends-on-domestic-demand

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

Russia's Economy Hitting the Skids

Things are bad in Russia, right now - and they are bound to get worse before they get better. Oil prices are not expected to increase substantively until 2017,  while production levels are  being punished. Too much economic pressure  on Russia, however, is not good for global peace.
Keep a steady  eye on this situation.

Can things get any worse for Russia? You're about to find out

For a decade, Dmitri Barinov has been following the volatile economy of his homeland from the safe distance of Union Investment’s offices in Frankfurt. Last year, as other money managers were steering clear of Russia’s broken economy, the Moscow-born Barinov pulled off something of a coup: He persuaded his bosses to take the plunge and buy Russian government bonds. It was a narrow bet, but he ended up winning because the central bank—after implementing the biggest interest rate hike since the Russian financial crisis in 1998 to prop up the collapsing ruble—changed course and aggressively backtracked. In the first 10 months of 2015, ruble-denominated government bonds handed investors such as Barinov a 25 percent return in dollar terms, the biggest gain for local bonds anywhere.

Read More

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/can-things-get-any-worse-for-russia-youre-about-to-find-out/ar-BBpU3Q4?li=BBnbfcL

Putin "Prepared to Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons" If Turkey/Saudi Invade Syria  

In Syria, rather than cooperate with Russia and Iran in helping Assad’s military defeat the jihadists, the Obama administration has continued playing it cute, insisting – as Secretary of State John Kerry has said recently – that armed “legitimate opposition groups” exist separately from Al Qaeda’s Nusra Front.

Recession 2016: In Some States, A Very Deep Economic Downturn Has Already Arrived 

If the price of oil does not go back up, this could be just the beginning. It is being reported that a whopping 35 percent of all oil and gas companies around the planet are at risk of falling into bankruptcy, and the financial institutions that have been backing these energy companies are getting very nervous.

1 in 4 Americans on Verge of Financial Ruin  

That’s particularly problematic considering that emergencies happen more often than you might think. A 2014 survey by American Express found that half of all Americans had experienced an unforeseen expense in the past year — some of which could be considered an emergency. Indeed, 44% of those who had an unforeseen expense(s) had one for health care and 46% for car trouble — two items that for many Americans are must-pay items, as you need a car to get to work and your health expenses are usually not optional. 

Thousands Told Their Pension Savings at Risk

Thousands of workers who have been encouraged by the government to take out pension plans could be at risk of losing their savings, the industry regulator has told the BBC.

It follows fears that dozens of companies providing auto enrolment pensions are too small to survive.

The BBC has also uncovered evidence that employers and workers are being deliberately misled by some providers.

The government said it was aware of the issue, and was planning to take action.

Independent experts claim the problem could affect up to a quarter of a million people a year who are putting their savings into so-called master trust pensions.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35560788 

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

Singapore's Financial System Melting Fast

Singapore Lawyers Warn of 1998-Like Pain as Debt Defaults Spread  

Rajah & Tann Singapore LLP, Southeast Asia’s largest law firm, reckons the region’s rising bond defaults will inflict as much pain on creditors as the financial crises of 2008 and 1998.

As distress spreads from shipping to mining and retail to construction industries, the law firm said in an interview that recovery rates will be similar to those seen in the global credit meltdown and Asian financial crisis. Secured creditors recover only less than 33 cents on the dollar from insolvencies in East and South Asia, compared with more than 80 cents in the U.S., according to World Bank studies. Rival law firm Hogan Lovells US LLP said in an interview that regional banks will likely boost sales of bad loans in coming months.

“The trough in the mining cycle seems to be continuing and some say it will be a while more before any significant recovery is expected,” said Sim Kwan Kiat, Rajah & Tann’s head of restructuring and insolvency based in Singapore. “From experience, the lower end of the spectrum for recovery rates this time round in 2016 is unlikely to be much different from those in 2008 or 1997-98.”

READ MORE 

The Coming Storm  

The potential of these dislocations to derail the UK’s economic recovery has not been lost on our policymakers. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has comprehensively surrendered the idea of finally raising interest rates: its one member who had been voting in favour joined the more pessimistic majority earlier this month. The Chancellor, meanwhile, has been at pains in recent speeches to warn of the “cocktail of risks” facing the British economy. There seems little doubt, in other words, that the sudden acceleration of uncertainty on global financial markets is serious. But why is it happening – and what does it mean?

Iraq On The Brink Of Chaos As Oil Revenues Fall  

Earlier this week, Baghdad extended an offer to pay the salaries of the KRG’s public employees in return for a halting of unilateral oil exports by the Kurds. Both sides need this deal. The KRG is struggling to pay salaries, and protests are mounting—threatening the stability of what was not long ago the only peaceful and secure place in all of Iraq.

Saudi Arabia Leads Surge in Arms Imports by Middle East States  

Overall, imports by states in the Middle East increased by 61%; imports by European states decreased by 41% over the same period. Britain sold more weapons to Saudi Arabia than to any other country. Saudi Arabia is also the biggest US arms market and buys more American arms than British, the report shows.

Panic Below The Surface: 

"Banks Are Selling Energy Loans At Cents On The Dollar  

One week ago, when we commented on the latest weekly update from Credit Suisse's very well hooked-in energy analyst James Wicklund, one particular phrase stuck out when looking at the upcoming contraction of Oil and Gas liquidity: "while your borrowing base might be upheld, there will be minimum liquidity requirements before capital can be accessed. It is hitting the OFS sector as well. As one banker put it, "we are looking to save ourselves now."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-21/panic-below-surface-banks-are-selling-energy-loans-cents-dollar-ensure-their-own-sur

How Economic Growth Fails, & More

How Economic Growth Fails

The Wealth Of Planets 

http://endofenergy.blogspot.ca/2014/03/the-wealth-of-planets.html

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Overview of Energy Modeling Problem

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to inadequate supply.

Today’s economic threats and why 

everyone is ignoring them 

Think Apple is stock market gold? Think China is the new economic superpower? You thought wrong. In the years since losing Steve Jobs, Apple has failed to innovate while engaging in unparalleled corporate arrogance. China meanwhile is leveraged to the hilt at the same time their government is criminalizing liquidation. Today Robert and Kim talk with Bert Dohmen about these economic threats and why everyone is ignoring them.

Precious Metals Offer The Most Profitable Secular Opportunity Today 

Indeed, it is our job to guide investors through rough waters in the markets. When we become contrarian, there is a good reason for that. Gold, silver, and miners are undervalued. The correction has been too long, too sharp. Over time, a mean reversal will take place. Gradually increasing positions in undervalued assets is what secular investors should do in order to tap into the potential of the market.

Is Portable Energy Tech Finally Worthy Of Investment? 

Toshiba is not a U.S. company of course, but the firm does have an ADR trading on the pink sheets in the U.S. under symbol TOSYY and TOSBF. Normally, pink sheet investments are very risky and have to be approached with extreme caution. That rule is not really as relevant though when dealing with enormous multinational firms like Toshiba. While the issues are still not as liquid as most exchange traded stocks, at least with an ADR for a sizeable firm, investors get the comfort of knowing that their investment is based on a stable company with real profits.

El Niño May Bring Record Heat, and Rain for California 

Conditions in the Pacific Ocean suggest that what has formed there is as big as anything seen since 1997-98, a system that brought the term “El Niño” into popular culture and which is remembered for the catastrophic amounts of water it dumped on California, leading to flooding and mudslides.

California receives most of its precipitation in the winter, and that is when the effects of a potent El Niño system are felt.

Japan economy seen shrinking in Q2 in setback for "Abenomics"

TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Japan's economy likely shrank in April-June as exports slumped and consumers cut back on spending, a Reuters poll showed, boding ill for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policy drive to lift the economy out of decades of deflation.

China's economic slowdown and its impact on its trade-reliant Asian neighbors have also heightened the chance that any rebound in growth in July-September will be modest, analysts say.

Growing signs that Japan's economy is at a standstill are clouding the outlook for the premier's "Abenomics" programme aimed at ending 15 years of deflation with bold monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

It may also rekindle market expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus again to prop up the economy, though many central bankers remain wary of acting any time soon.

Learning Success: 

APPLY Tips From The Best

Indra Nooyi,  

PepsiCo, another of 100 Most Powerful Women - Forbes, has not only led her company to record financial results but is making strides to move PepsiCo in a healthier direction, leading the courageous charge to shed traditional fast food properties and to replace them with initiatives to supply healthier foods. She is deeply caring and committed as a senior executive. She is a fun-loving executive as well—she played lead guitar for an all-woman rock band in college, loved to play cricket, and is known to sing karaoke and perform at corporate gatherings to this day. Yes, I have been known to relate to her fun-loving spirit as a senior executive as well.

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An Inconvenient Truth

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EXISTENTIAL REALITY 

"Humanity's Coming of Age"

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