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#BIG #PLAYERS SEE #OIL AT $200 By 2022-End

  OILPRICE.COM Top Oil Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End-2022 By  Irina Slav  - Mar 24, 2022, A number of big oil traders now predict crud...

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Showing posts with label doom gloom. future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label doom gloom. future. Show all posts

Monday, 14 March 2016

China on Verge of Massive Labor Unrest - Protests on Upswing


"Mr. Zeng, 41, had orchestrated successful campaigns against influential factories and state-owned firms in Guangdong and tutored a generation of labor activists. After his arrest, state news outlets began a smear campaign accusing him of hiring prostitutes, stealing from workers and conspiring with hostile foreign forces."

The New York Times


Labor Protests Multiply in China as Economy Slows, Worrying Leaders



GUANGZHOU, China — For nearly seven years, Li Wei rose before dawn for his 10-hour shift at the steel plant, returning home each night soaked in sweat, the clank of heavy machinery still ringing in his ears. But last month, the 31-year-old welder stood outside the plant with hundreds of co-workers, picketing against pay cuts and singing patriotic battle hymns.
Image result for read article button
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html?_r=0 


India's big move into solar is 
already paying off  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made access to electricity a top priority, and has set the goal of making 24-hour power available to all 1.3 billion Indians. Currently, even India's biggest cities suffer from frequent power outages.



Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia have apparently agreed to a production freeze. This is meaningless theater but it helped lift oil prices 37% from just more than $26 in mid-February to almost $36 per barrel last week. That is a lot of added revenue for Saudi Arabia and Russia but it will do nothing to balance the over-supplied world oil market.


If the employment gains were indeed as strong as the Fed, and the BLS, currently suggest; the labor force participation rate should be rising strongly. This has been the case during every other period in history where employment growth increased. Since the financial crisis, despite employment gains, the labor force participation rate has continued to fall.
This suggests that at some point in the future, we will likely see negative revisions to the employment data showing weaker growth than currently thought.





A Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short: Here's Why



When we last looked at the $2.9 billion Horseman Capital, we reported that not only has the fund which many have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has achieved that return while been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012.
In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. Its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

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Wednesday, 9 March 2016

IMF Confirms Global #Economy Crashing



IMF Says World is at Risk of 'Economic Derailment'


First deputy managing director of the IMF, David Lipton, centre, says the world is at a delicate juncture

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy faces a growing "risk of economic derailment" and must take steps to boost global demand.
David Lipton, second in command at the IMF, outlined some of these risks in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Washington on Tuesday.
"The IMF's latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline," he said. "We are clearly at a delicate juncture." 
READ MORE







Coal provides about a third of Oregon's electricity, but most of it is imported from Utah, Montana and Wyoming. The state only has one operating coal-fired power plant, the 36-year-old Boardman facility supplying about 550 megawatts, but it is due to shut down by 2020.
State Republicans criticized the bill as leading to higher electricity costs for households but Pacific Power, a large Oregon utility, answered that the move to renewables would only raise costs by less than 1 percent by 2030, the newspaper said. The other major utility in the state, Portland General Electric, also backed the deal.



Economists (like me) take a wider perspective. We tend to focus on markets as aggregates rather than on individual firms. We also see government as an economic actor in its own right, providing public goods and other essentials that markets don’t because of externalities and market failure. We know the “logic” of government leads it to overreach, but most of us don’t imagine that we can live without it



Recently it occurred to me that the wave pool provides a metaphor for a complex, but disquieting phenomena that I've have been writing about at Oil-price.net for some time now -for previous articles see 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015.
For anyone who has read one of these pieces you'll know how I have described that every three to four years volatility in the price of oil surges upwards as if spurred by an unseen wave machine.



China's Export Slump Shows Growth Push Hinges on Local Demand


Image result for china economic disaster


China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep the economy humming at home while trade acts as a brake on growth.

The week-long Chinese new year holidays fell in February this year, closing factories and curbing shipments. That saw exports tumble 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. 

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Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Top British Banker Dooms #EUROZONE



Whatever boneheads thought that supra-constitutions were better  for economic stability or governing anything had more than a few loose marbles. Basically, such stupidity undermines both free enterprise and democracy , thereby destroying the fabric, inspiration and motivation of a society while concurrently leading to oppressive states that garner Soviet-style sluggishness and inefficiencies.

 Now, if you recall the Soviet system fell apart just for the reasons mentioned above  - meaning that it was a perfect time for the  Eurozone to copy their failed ideology ( so who needs a book to figure out common sense issues?  - More dumb!) 

Repeat after FFI folks, "Tear Down Those Walls Mr Gorbachev"  


Mervyn King: The  Eurozone is Doomed





The eurozone is doomed to fail and will lurch from crisis to crisis unless it is broken up, according to the former governor of the Bank of England.
In his new book, Lord King claims that steps towards fiscal union will not quell tensions in the 19-nation bloc and could even tear it apart. 
He warns of a looming “economic [and] political crisis” triggered by endless bail-outs, austerity demands and pressure from the “elites in Europe” and the US to create “a transfer union” to solve the eurozone’s woes. 
READ MORE

China central bank cuts reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points 

China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has cut further the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash the country's banks have to hold, in an attempt to calm investor jitters over the world's second largest economy. The PBOC cut the ratio ...






China expects to lay off 1.8 million workers in coal, steel sectors 

The central government will allocate 100 billion yuan ($15.27 billion) over ... There are many issues to be dealt with, including how to pay debt as well as layoffs.





Financial Precipice à la 1929?  

There is a huge laundry list of leading economic indicators I could point you to for visualizing the sick economy, but perhaps the king of all leading indicators is the price of oil. It has absolutely cratered in the past year and a half. It’s gone from well over $100 per barrel to now hovering around $30 and flirting with the idea of going lower, a 70%+ decline. Now why would oil drop in price so dramatically? 

Is it because the Saudi’s are trying to drive the American shale industry out of business? No, it’s much simpler than that. People simply don’t need as much oil because they aren’t producing enough goods because there aren’t enough people willing to buy those goods. When demand dries up, sellers are forced to lower prices to entice buyers to keep buying.


China Devalues Yuan as Stocks Crash



 


With China devaluing its currency, stocks crashing 3 percent and capital flight accelerating, China has cut back its bank reserve requirements to free up $100 billion in credit.

Facing pressure from huge capital flight, the Chinese allowed their yuan currency todevalue to 6.6 yuan to the dollar on Feb. 29, causing local stock markets to crash by 3 to 5 percent — to levels not seen since late 2014.
To try to stop the rout, China’s central bank cut its deposit reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, to 17 percent, in an effort to free up about $100 billion in new credit for the world’s second-largest economy. The cut marks the fifth time in the last 12 months, but the first time since October 23, that China has had to reduce bank solvency to deal with financial panic, according to Stratfor Global Intelligence.
READ MORE


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Wednesday, 24 February 2016

#Economy Lurched at Brink - South Africa


 This is another case where an overpopulated country with diminishing resources  per capita has fallen  onto perpetual hard times like Nauru.  It reflects the peak in global civilization and there are more coming as the resources per capita crisis grows unabated.



Tipping Point Looms for Despairing South Africa  


Not since Nelson Mandela walked out of Victor Verster prison 26 years ago have investors been gloomier about South Africa’s economy.
Money is pouring out at a record pace as inflows dwindle. The rand has plunged and unemployment is the highest among almost 40 developing nations tracked by Bloomberg. Drought is driving up food costs. Hanging in the balance is the investment-grade credit rating South Africa sweated to achieve in 2000, shortly after Mandela left office.
South Africans are paying the price not just for a collapse in commodities prices -- metals and mining contribute more than 50 percent of exports -- but for growing questions over whether President Jacob Zuma is up to the task. Stoking doubts were the antics at the finance ministry in December, when Zuma removed Nhlanhla Nene and replaced him with little-known lawmaker David van Rooyen. As bond yields soared and the rand crashed, he changed his mind four days later and installed Pravin Gordhan, Nene’s predecessor.

Read More



The $700 bank bailout plan Kashkari helped author, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), stopped the Wall Street firms that caused the crisis from going bankrupt. A parallel process, undertaken by New York President Timothy Geithner along with the Treasury Department, pressured the Wall Street banks to merge and get even bigger in hopes that size would increase confidence in the financial system



Why doesn’t government know what’s in your food? Because industry can declare on their own that added ingredients are safe. It’s all thanks to a loophole in a 57-year old law that allows food manufacturers to circumvent the approval process by regulators. This means companies can add substances to food without ever consulting the Food and Drug Administration about potential health risks.



The grey moving average on the larger chart is the 60 day moving average, which is more important than the widely followed 50 DMA, and it shows signs of flattening, a very bullish signal, certainly if it will transition into a rising pattern.


 New Global Financial Cold War  

The United States has responded by changing the IMF rules. It said, ‘Wait a minute. It’s okay for the IMF to make loans to countries that don’t pay China and Russia or the BRICs, because we’re in a new Cold War. The IMF really is working for us.’ As long as the U.S. has veto power in the IMF, its delegate can veto any loan to a country that owes money to the United States that the United States doesn’t wish to support. But it has no objection for the IMF making loans to U.S. satellites such as Ukraine, that official debts to Russia.

Friday, 14 August 2015

How Economic Growth Fails, & More



Figure 2. Dome constructed using Leonardo Sticks
Figure 1





Image result for gail tverbergMy name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to inadequate supply.

Think Apple is stock market gold? Think China is the new economic superpower? You thought wrong. In the years since losing Steve Jobs, Apple has failed to innovate while engaging in unparalleled corporate arrogance. China meanwhile is leveraged to the hilt at the same time their government is criminalizing liquidation. Today Robert and Kim talk with Bert Dohmen about these economic threats and why everyone is ignoring them.


Indeed, it is our job to guide investors through rough waters in the markets. When we become contrarian, there is a good reason for that. Gold, silver, and miners are undervalued. The correction has been too long, too sharp. Over time, a mean reversal will take place. Gradually increasing positions in undervalued assets is what secular investors should do in order to tap into the potential of the market.

Image result for jetsons equipment
Toshiba is not a U.S. company of course, but the firm does have an ADR trading on the pink sheets in the U.S. under symbol TOSYY and TOSBF. Normally, pink sheet investments are very risky and have to be approached with extreme caution. That rule is not really as relevant though when dealing with enormous multinational firms like Toshiba. While the issues are still not as liquid as most exchange traded stocks, at least with an ADR for a sizeable firm, investors get the comfort of knowing that their investment is based on a stable company with real profits.





Conditions in the Pacific Ocean suggest that what has formed there is as big as anything seen since 1997-98, a system that brought the term “El Niño” into popular culture and which is remembered for the catastrophic amounts of water it dumped on California, leading to flooding and mudslides.
California receives most of its precipitation in the winter, and that is when the effects of a potent El Niño system are felt.

Japan economy seen shrinking in Q2 in setback for "Abenomics"


TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Japan's economy likely shrank in April-June as exports slumped and consumers cut back on spending, a Reuters poll showed, boding ill for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policy drive to lift the economy out of decades of deflation.

China's economic slowdown and its impact on its trade-reliant Asian neighbors have also heightened the chance that any rebound in growth in July-September will be modest, analysts say.

Growing signs that Japan's economy is at a standstill are clouding the outlook for the premier's "Abenomics" programme aimed at ending 15 years of deflation with bold monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

It may also rekindle market expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus again to prop up the economy, though many central bankers remain wary of acting any time soon.



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PepsiCo, another of 100 Most Powerful Women - Forbes, has not only led her company to record financial results but is making strides to move PepsiCo in a healthier direction, leading the courageous charge to shed traditional fast food properties and to replace them with initiatives to supply healthier foods. She is deeply caring and committed as a senior executive. She is a fun-loving executive as well—she played lead guitar for an all-woman rock band in college, loved to play cricket, and is known to sing karaoke and perform at corporate gatherings to this day. Yes, I have been known to relate to her fun-loving spirit as a senior executive as well.




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An Inconvenient Truth



"Eurasia BIG Bang" 


What Happens When Geo-Political Shifts Occur?





EXISTENTIAL REALITY 


"Humanity's Coming of Age"

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