BIG Oil Stocks Good Long-term #Investments?

The Future of Oil Companies: A Slow Decline

Market watchers are announcing the demise of the oil majors. Not for the first time. According to Jilles van den Beukel, former geoscientist with Shell, the oil companies are indeed seeing their world shrinking. But they are not dead yet: their reason for being – the world’s demand for oil and gas – is still there.

NGO’s refer to the oil majors as slowly moving dinosaurs, sitting on stranded assets that cannot be (fully) produced. They maintain that their shares are massively overvalued and that the majors should rapidly change their business model or perish. Financial analysts are worried about high costs, future oil demand and low reserve replacement ratios. They point out that the companies should prepare for an oil price that stays lower for longer rather than to keep on repeating that the current low oil prices are not sustainable. Are things really that bad for the majors?

http://theenergycollective.com/energy-post/2323568/future-oil-companies-slow-decline

Moody's warns global slowdown could spark sovereign downgrades

Credit rating agency Moody's warned on Tuesday there could be another wave of sovereign and corporate downgrades if a wider global economic slowdown started to take place.

European Bonds Gain as Economic Growth Backs Case for ECB Easing

European government bonds extended gains from Monday while the region’s stocks declined as data confirmed economic growth slowed in the second half of 2015, underpinning the case for more stimulus from the European Central Bank.

OECD Leading Indicators Point to Slowing Global Growth

The Paris-based research body said its gauges of future economic activity—which are based on information available for January—continue to point to slowdowns in the U.S., the U.K., Canada and Russia, but now also suggest growth is set to ease in Germany and Brazil.

U.S. Government Bond Yields Fall as Japan Drops to Record Lows

 Government bond yields in Japan on Tuesday fell to record lows, and the ripple effect pushed down yields in the U.S., Germany and the U.K.

Strong auction demand for a 30-year Japanese government bond sent investors piling into bonds. The buying sent the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note below 1.9% again and stalled the yield’s uptick momentum over the past month. As bond prices rise, yields fall. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/government-bond-yields-in-u-s-europe-japan-drop-1457449179

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

Rock Star China Analyst Paints Bleak Picture, & More

The World's Top China Analyst Has A Doomsday Scenario

There are China analysts, and then there is Charlene Chu.

She has been called a rock star of Chinese-debt analysis. Money managers the world over pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to her research at her new firm Autonomous Research. Her reports are rarely leaked, and she rarely gives interviews.

Business Insider got a glimpse at a massive report she wrote at the end of July.

This was when everyone was freaking out about the precipitous fall of China's stock markets, and it predates the Chinese authorities' decision to devalue the yuan.

Her base case in the report was for Chinese authorities to maintain stability of the equity market and forestall contagion.There is also a doomsday scenario, however, in which there is contagion to other domestic and international markets, large capital outflows, and an acceleration of problems associated with financial-sector weakness and corporate indebtedness.

The report said: "This in turn would likely lead to a significant pullback in credit, putting the brakes on GDP growth and bringing an end to China's decades of stellar economic growth. At that point, social and political stability — the critical wild cards in this equation — could come under question."

This is what doom looks like

Greenspan warns about bond-market bubble

: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is sounding the alarm about a bubble that he believes is forming in the bond market.

In two television interviews in recent days, Greenspan said interest rates could shoot higher and derail the economy when the bubble bursts.

The former Fed chairman says the current situation in the bond market is comparable to what happens in the stock market during an equity bubble.

Noting that stock-market bubbles are typically characterized by extreme price-to-earnings ratios, Greenspan said extremely low yields are telling a similar tale for bonds.

“If you turn the bond market around and you look at the price of bonds relative to the interest received by those bonds, that looks very much like the usual spread which would concern us if it were equities, and we should be concerned,” Greenspan said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

Saudi Stocks Sink Into DeathCross as IMF Sees Growth Slowing

Growth in OPEC’s biggest exporter will slow to 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2016 after oil prices slumped, the Washington-based IMF said in a statement on Monday. If spending isn’t curbed, its fiscal deficit would be “very large” this year and over the medium term, it added.

Brazil Stocks Extend Six-Day Slide as 

Gol Sinks on Economic Woes

“Moody’s isn’t the only one predicting that growth will be slow to rebound,” said Ari Santos, a trader at Sao Paulo-based brokerage H.Commcor. “Looking forward, we’ll have a stagnant economy, with no growth and no outlook to grow.”

Brazil’s Political Crisis Puts the Entire

Economy on Hold

In the midst of its deepest economic and political crisis in a generation, Brazil is contending with a business climate so punishing that major projects across numerous sectors are being frozen or shrunk, while small businesses slash prices and shift focus.

Singapore bankers rattled by Asian

moves to chase undeclared wealth

Singapore-based wealth managers, already under pressure from a global move towards tax information sharing, face a more immediate threat as Asian countries including Indonesia and India look to chase undeclared money in the low-tax city state. A global crackdown on tax evasion launched during the 2008 financial crisis has already forced Switzerland and other European offshore hubs to surrender their prized bank secrecy.

Private Sector UK Pension Deficit Reaches £900 Billion

The combined deficit of private sector DB schemes in the UK

 now stands at around £900 billion, up from £250 billion

 since the start of the millennium, despite companies pouring

 in £500 billion towards pension saving over that time.

 According to Hymans Robertson, the stark figures highlight

 that for too long pension schemes have been taking too 

much risks

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Larry Page,  Google – 


Larry Page is another example of a businessperson who can persevere any challenge. Larry and his company have faced much criticism and received ample praise over the years for his company’s actions. But in the midst of the storm, he has never let what others think sway him from pursuing the course for his company that he considers the best.

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An Inconvenient Truth

"Battle For Oil" 

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 - Looking Beyond The Brink -

Brazil's Credit Rating Junk By S&P, & More

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• Brazil’s Credit Rating at Risk of Cut to Junk Grade by S&P

"The ratings company said in a statement Tuesday it revised the outlook on Brazil’s rating to negative from stable. The country’s rating from S&P is already at BBB-, the lowest investment grade.

The ratings move adds to challenges for President Dilma Rousseff and her economic team led by Finance Minister Joaquim Levy as they duel with Congress to shore up fiscal accounts at the same time the country slips into recession. "

• Brazilian Real Leads Global Declines
•  After Negative S&P Outlook

"Brazil’s real led global declines and fell to a 12-year low after Standard & Poor’s changed the outlook on the nation’s credit rating to negative, citing challenges to balancing the budget and the unprecedented investigation of public officials."

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• European Central Bank's balance sheet rises to EUR 2.525 tn

"The combined balance sheet of the European Central Bank and the euro zone's 19 national central banks rose by 6.2 billion euros ($6.85 billion) to 2.525 trillion euros in the week to July 24, the ECB said on Tuesday."

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• Chinese Stocks Just Created a New Headache for Janet Yellen

"Exit strategies used to be the preoccupation of Pentagon planners. Nowadays, it’s more a province for central bank watchers, since the Federal Reserve gorged on trillions of dollars of mortgage and government debt.

And in that economic realm, China has just added a new conundrum. The dependence of the nation’s stock market on official support was exposed Monday with the biggest drop since 2007 amid speculation aid had been dialed back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7 percent Tuesday even after China pledged to keep up efforts to “stabilize” the market."

• 13 Per Cent of Canadians Believe They'll Be in Debt Forever 

"According to a new study released on Tuesday by CIBC, the average Canadian expects to be debt free by the time they reach the age of 56 years old; however, some Canadians forecast debt well into their sixties.

Only a third, or 29 per cent, of Canadians are debt free, while 13 per cent do not foresee a future without debt."

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• U.S. Homeownership Drops To Its Lowest Level Since 1967

"The last time homeownership levels were this low, LBJ was president.

Data released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday reveal that the U.S. homeownership rate stood at 63.4% for the second quarter of 2015. The rate is down slightly compared to the first quarter (63.7%), and it represents the lowest level of homeownership in America since 1967."

•  House prices in England and Wales hit record high

"Responding to the figures, Campbell Robb, Shelter’s chief executive, said: “When house prices soar by this much in a single year thanks to our housing shortage, it’s clear that for millions of people across the country, a home of your own is fast becoming a pipe dream.”"

• Rent prices jump, indicating coming crisis 

"Low vacancy rate, high cost of home ownership conspire against renters"

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Jeff Bezos, Amazon– Jeff Bezos is a pioneer in world of internet commerce, and was instrumental in defining this space that is now defining many aspects of the internet world. It is Jeff Bezos who innovated the concept of “predictive analytics”–recommending products to customers based on search history and buying habits. Whether you like the concept or you hate it, the idea has made online commerce more profit rich and efficient, and is making online shopping a better experience for consumers throughout the world.

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An Inconvenient Truth:

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 EXISTENTIAL REALITY 

"Humanity Coming of Secular Age"

 - The Last Days of Theism -