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Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Stocks Will Boom or Doom - Who Knows?

Be wary when you hear ‘this is the big stock crash’ 

 

 

 




By L.A. Little












Market commentators love to make the big call: market crash. As soon as there is a sign of general market weakness, they come out of the woodwork with their crash calls. Perennial doom commentators like Marc Faber, Harry Dent and others were on the airwaves last week talking up the fear of the impending meltdown. If you go back through history, that's how you get famous.

You repeat your bear calls each time the market wobbles, calling for a huge decline, and if it develops while your call is still fresh, then six months down the road you are a guru — set up to live off your 15 minutes of fame for the rest of your life.
Of course, these big macro gloom-and-doom calls do nothing for the average investor/trader. In fact, one could easily make the case that they do far more harm than good, since they are wrong 99% of the time, and anyone who acts on the crash calls typically ends up liquidating what are likely well-positioned longs at inopportune times.

It all ended in 2013?



So are the crash callers right this time around? Is this that 1% case where you really should sell everything finally and hunker down? Is this the big meltdown that has been repeatedly called fo?r


 
In short, it is doubtful, and even if it is, it will take more time to create the structure needed for it to happen. How can one say that with confidence? What is meant by that statement? Many detractors suggest that one cannot know when a sell off is imminent and with that, I agree. Imminent implies one can call both direction and timing correctly. That is not possible with any reasonable degree of accuracy.



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Comments:

Great to hear and read a balanced insight on the markets - and generally reality. Anyone who has been in the markets knows by now they are not always rationale, and guru's are right only some of the time, you will never hear about their mistakes thatare  promptly buried in the "oops" archives.

Let's face it, most these guys - Rogers, Dent, Faber, and others are financial entertainers. and that includes the cable networks - Cramer as well. There are mostly actors, comedians and promoters bestowing modern day snake oil to any one foolish enough to listen. J. T. Barnum's patrons.

So on with the show...

Platinum Wealth Partner 
April 22, 2014       


  
  

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